Meeting with Alan today to discuss outline. Came up with basic break-down of paragraphs:
Intro/Abstract
Scope: Previous work, scope simple example existence of warning signal/CSD is clear. Identifiability/Power not clear. Mention the issue of Replicates
Nonlinearity not observed with infinite data
reasons detection fails: Identifiability issue & Power issue. Example signal that exists but inadequate power to detect?
Eigenvalue story
Probability of data vs Probability of a statistic
Simulation example
Summarize results
More knowledge of system help choose the right nonlinear model corresponding to the system.
Conclusions
(Linear/nonlinear estimation analogous to parameterized estimation of tails of distribution vs non-par)
Theoretical mathematics question: Existence Statistical Question: Identifiable, Power
Continued progress
Setting up more exploratory simulations and writing. Simulation speed is quite limiting at the moment. May need to move likelihood calculations into C.
OTher Notes
Some discussion of plans for a workshop on NSF data sharing. Alan raises several good points:
Theoretical ecology policy should include a policy on code
How about large data-sets separate from publications, i.e. NEON?
Dave Schimmel NEON – Open Data