main text
Summary Sentence. Abstract
Paragraphs
- Early Warning matter, no-one does statistics
- We need quantify uncertainty stats
- ROC curve shows this trade-off
- ROC also compares different methods & data sizes (i.e. Fig 4)
- Quantifying “increasing variance” etc – we’ll use tau
- We’ll also do a likelihood-based method
- Introduce the datasets
- ROC curves on the data, Fig 3
- Quantifying data necessary, Fig 4
- Disclaimers: Not completely general
- Conclusion
Supporting Online Material
Original Appendix had:
- Data
- Averaging over ensembles vs averaging over time (cut?)
- Error Types (cut)
- Model Derivations (edits)
- Likelihood calculations (edited, more notes on derivations)
- The likelihood statistic
- A note on information criteria (cut)
- Parameter distributions
- Model choice & model adequacy
- Package Tutorial
- Examples
- Comparisons to skew