Alan and I have been considering analyzing a particular system for early warning signals where we could highlight risk management from an economics stand-point, probably with the help of Jim Sanchirico. Our current work focuses on quantifying the relative risk of false alarms and missed detections. While statisticians typically accept a 5% “false alarm” rate, we argue this given limited data this is always a trade-off against the missed detection rate and hence the location of this threshold should properly a decision of management, not of convention. Including the details of a particular system would be ideal, as it may allow us to assess the appropriateness of the assumptions in the warning signals approach more accurately as well.
Just starting this off with some background reading, mostly from Alan’s work with our former graduate student Julie Blackwood (Blackwood et. al. 2010),(Blackwood et. al. 2011).
References
Blackwood J, Hastings A and Mumby P (2010). “The Effect of Fishing on Hysteresis in Caribbean Coral Reefs.” Theoretical Ecology, 5. ISSN 1874-1738, https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12080-010-0102-0.
Blackwood J, Hastings A and Mumby P (2011). “A Model-Based Approach to Determine The Long-Term Effects of Multiple Interacting Stressors on Coral Reefs.” Ecological Applications, 21. ISSN 1051-0761, https://dx.doi.org/10.1890/10-2195.1.